A recent poll by Global InfoAnalytics predicts a victory for John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in Ghana’s upcoming presidential election.
The poll, released just eight days before the December 7 election, predicts that Mahama will secure 52.2% of the vote, placing him ahead of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) candidate, Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, who is expected to garner 41.4%.
The poll results highlight a potential shift in Ghana’s political landscape towards a victory for John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC). If accurate, Mahama’s projected win would signify a return to power for the NDC after their loss in the 2020 election.
The poll also predicts that the NDC will secure a majority in parliament, with an estimated 150 seats compared to the NPP’s projected 99 seats.
Key factors influencing voter preferences, according to the report, include concerns about the economy, job creation, and the delivery of public services.
Regional strongholds are expected to play a significant role in determining the election outcome, with Mahama predicted to win in 10 regions, including Greater Accra, Central, Volta, and Northern regions, while Bawumia is expected to win in regions such as Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East.
It’s important to emphasise that these predictions are based on just one poll, and they are subject to change as the election approaches. The report acknowledges this by presenting best- and worst-case scenarios, indicating that Mahama’s support could range from 50.4% to 54.1%, contingent on voter turnout and the decisions of undecided voters.
Additionally, Professor Smart Sarpong of Kumasi Technical University conducted a previous survey in November 2024, which projected a different outcome, placing Bawumia ahead with 49.1% of the vote compared to Mahama’s 45.8%.
The upcoming election is evolving into a closely contested race, with both candidates vying for voter support. With the election days away, the predictions from Global InfoAnalytics offer a glimpse into potential voter sentiment, yet the actual results remain uncertain.
